Yao Guimei

Senior reseach fellow of IWAAS

yaogm@cass.org.cn

Introduction

Agriculture plays a dominant role in African countries. It contributes 35% of Africa's GDP, 40% percent of the exports, and about 70% percent of employment1.  However, African agriculture has kept suffering crises since 1960s. Although there were some structural adjustments in 1980s, it is in deterioration. This article examines the main causes of African agricultural crisis: unrealistic theories and thoughts after its independence led to the inappropriate macroeconomic trade policies, pricing polices and sectoral polices in practice, which played a major role in its poor domestic agriculture performance; physical environments and resources are unfavorable ; poor technology and its incapacity to use potential land enlarged the gap of production level between African countries and the rest of the world; perpetual civil wars and conflicts are destructive of its agriculture development. Finally the paper describes the external elements, arguing that external events (heavy foreign debt burdens worsen terms of trade of agriculture products in international market and decline of foreign donors) can not be neglected.    

Section I

Generally speaking, the African agriculture situation is becoming worse. Up to now, the productive level of African agriculture has not recovered to that of 1970s although many measures were taken to develop its agriculture since 1980s. Immediately after its independence, per capita agriculture production in Africa advanced for a short time. However, it started declining since early 1970s, reaching lowest point in 1984. Then it fluctuated between 80- 85 per cent in 1969-1971.It has not been able to get over the plight. Viewing from the output of agriculture, the year of 1984 also is a turning point. Before 1984, the output of agriculture kept a low growth, 1.2 per cent of annual rate.  After 1984, the output maintained a rapid growth, 3.1 per cent of annual rate.  But such a high rate only reaches the target that prevents from declining in per capita output. At the same, the year of 1984 is also a turning point in agricultural export.  Before 1984, agricultural export as a whole was in declining tendency. In 1984, agricultural export was only tantamount to that of average value during 1969-1971---a little more than 70%. Afterwards, it maintained recovery growth tendency. Currently it is keeping the level in 1970s. Compared by cross-section sample, ratio of African agriculture export in the world is declining, falling from 5% in 1961 to 4.3% in 1984, then to 2.3% in 1998.

1. Food shortage situation in Africa is increasingly deteriorating, and hunger is threatening the whole continent.

During 1950-1960, most African countries could supply with food. Some of them still had the surplus to export. However, with the high population growth rates and natural calamity since the early in 1970s, the African continent has plunged into food shortage. The food self-sufficient ratio in many countries declined from 98 per cent in 1960s to 82 per cent in the end of 1970s, to 60-70 per cent in 1980s. Even in 1990s, food shortage in African countries changed little, instead it further worsened. The food self-sufficient ratio fell to 50 per cent, causing more and more people to be directly threatened by severe hunger and malnutrition.

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statistical data, about a quarter obtains on average less than 80 per cent of the daily calories recommended by FAO and the World Health Organization. When there was a drought and some other natural disasters, the number is even larger. In terms of the total food consumption, energy values average 2100 calories per person per day in 1986, about 85 per cent of recommended requirements. In addition, the total number of malnutrition in Africa is 101million during 1969-1971, and it is up to 168 million during 1988-1990. Today it is estimated that one in three Africans, that is more than 200 million people, is directly threatened by famine and malnutrition. About 4.5 million children died of malnutrition per year.  Anemia and other kinds of human diseases are very popular in some other countries.

Africa was universally accepted as "the hungriest continent" in the world. Because of food shortage, African countries have to depend on a large quantity of cereal import and food aid. Cereal import growth on the average increased by 8.4 percent during 1970-1980.  The Cereal import reached as far as 20.42 million tones in 1980, which cost nearly US$ 5 billion. In 1990s, the situation that it relies on cereal import and aid for consumption has changed little. In 1999--2000, as there was a prolonged drought in large areas of eastern Africa as well as constant war and civil strife in parts of the Great Lakes, food supply has seriously deteriorated in Sub-Sahara Africa and 16 countries are facing exceptional food emergencies. The total food import is 16.29 million tones, exceeded that of 16.06 million tones in 1998/1999. During the same period, the total food aid required is estimated at 2.51 million tones, some 6 percent higher than that of actual food aid. 2

2. Production and export of cash crops slumped, leading to unbalance of financial revenue and expenditure in many African countries.

It is well known that the production and export of cash crops is a very important source of foreign currency for many African countries. However,  output of many kinds of cash crops that accounts for the proportion in the world as a whole  has  declined in the past four decades, although the yield of them increased in different degree (see table 1). Compared with the output, the changes of volume export in cash crops was even worse. Table 1 show that the volumes of export of, except the tea, the other cash crops accounting for the ratio in the world are falling down. Moreover, because of the constant drop in the prices of primary commodities in the world market, the value of Africa's share in world exports of cash crops declined more obviously. For example, the share of African cocoa bean  in world export fell from 80 per cent in 1970 to 65 per cent in 1998;  groundnut dropped from 71 per cent to 6.4 per cent, coffee from 26.4 per cent to 14 per cent and natural rubber from 7.5 per cent to 5.3 per cent etc3.  As the production of African cash crops grows slowly and even declines, the other countries of the world took the opportunity and replaced the African countries in the lead. For example, Tanzania, Uganda and other countries in Eastern Africa had been replaced by Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries in Southeastern Asia as the largest growing area of sisal hemp in the world. The Latin Americans narrowed its gaps with African countries in the production and export of cocoa. The decline of production and export of cash crops and a slight increase or even a decrease in foreign revenue mean a deadly blow to many of African countries which base their economy on single or some cash crops.    

Table 1 Change in Production and Export of Main Cash Crops in Africa

Source: FAOSTAT 2000

3. Technology and infrastructure in relation to African Agricultural Production are extremely backward.

With the exception of sisal hemp and sugarcane, most of African crops mainly take the shape of scatter and small-scale farming which are run by individual owners. Its agricultural technology is extremely backward even in 1990s. From the perspective of management, the primitive and traditional methods of cultivation in majority countries remained unchanged. Shifting cultivation, rotational fallow, maturing and inter-cropping are very popular in Sub-Saharan Africa. About 90% of agricultural production is done manually, by using the very simple tools. Fertilizers, insecticides, improved varieties are not widely used.  The agricultural mechanization and irrigation remain a very low level. According to the data from FAO, only 1.252 million hectare farmland are equipped with water conservancy facilities  in Africa in 1998,  accounting for 7% of its total cultivated land , far behind  19.7% of the world's average. Moreover, only half of irrigation land is equipped with modern technologies, while the rest are irrigated in traditional ways.  In 1965-80, the irrigation land grew at 4.4% rate annually, it almost stagnated since 1980. In 1998, there were only 542,266 agricultural tractors in Africa, accounting for 2.1 per cent of the total in the world; 38,575 harvesters-threshers, accounting for less than 1 per cent; only 461milking machines, accounting for 0.02 per cent.  In same year, consumption quantity of fertilizers in Africa is 3.795 million tones, only accounting for 2.8% of the total in the world. The average consumption quantity of fertilizers is 3.48 kg per hectare, amounting to one-ninth of the world's average. Even so, quite difference on consumption exists. For example, North Africa which only accounts for 15 per cent of total cultivation farmland in Africa, nearly consume 50 per cent of the total fertilizer in Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa which accounts for 85 per cent of the total cultivation farmland only consumes 50 per cent of the total fertilizers. The poor technology in agricultural production makes it difficult to prevent from suffering natural calamities, keeping its yield of staple crop per hectare in a lowest level in the world (see table 2).

Table 2              Staple Crop Yields (kg/ha) in 1988, 1998

Source：FAOSTAT 2000.

Section II

With regard to the fragility and backwardness of African agriculture, any internal factors or external one can cause crisis. However, the continuous deterioration of   African agricultural crisis is the result of various elements. Now that there are so many literatures on the factors of population growth and urbanization, the essay will not give any more concentration.

1. Economic theories which are divorced from African reality lead to the polices against agriculture.

African countries have been tremendously influenced by the external economic theories and thoughts in the choice of developmentStrategies and formation of economic polices since its independence. These economic theories and thoughts are both of Occident and the Orient which are separated from African reality and aimed to put African development into their orbit by every possible means and finally the African economy was misled.

(1) Period from 1960 to 1980

African countries had been mainly affected by the Western Modernization Theory and the former Soviet Union's "Non-Capitalism Path thoughts" during this period. Although these theories had many differences between research methods and the focus on policies, they were different in approach but equally satisfactory in result. All of them put the emphasis on state intervention in economy and the implement of their respective development models. All of them theoretically support the industrialized strategy which is characterized by catching up with and surpassing the western countries as well as import substitution. For instance, the famous American economist W.W .Rostow gave particular emphasis in his book The Stages of Economic Growth that economic development in the developing countries is a historical process of industrialization, hence;    the developing countries concentrate can realize its economic take-off and successfully enter the stage of sustainable self-development as long as they concentrate their effort on manufacture. Structuralism described the changing  process of social and economic structure in African countries as one of  absorption of surplus-labor from the traditional agricultural sector to the capitalistic industrial sector, during which  agriculture only functions as a numerous labor-provider. Thoughts about Non-Capitalism Path preached that backward countries such as African countries might leap over capitalist stages of development, and create a material base for   socialist transition, as long as they follow the Soviet Model with the help of advanced nations--- the carry-out of the central planned economy, development of the state-owned economy and the realization of industrialization.

Therefore, the African countries, guided by western economic development theories and demonstrated by the former Soviet Union’s economic pattern of industrialization, regarded the realization of industrialization as the panacea for their economic problems and implemented the development strategy of import substitution industrialization for a long period of time. The development strategy which emphasizes industry rather than agriculture, kept the development of industries in priority and the agriculture in a secondary position, which put a very limited investment in agricultural sector. In many countries, agriculture receives less than 10 per cent of public spending, lower than that of other areas in the world. In the conditions in which African countries already lacks investment in agricultural sector,   they still invested their limited money on cash crops.  Fertile land, majority of water conservancy project, a large number labor force, a great quantity of fertilizer and pesticides are all used for cash crops. These polices led to serious consequences. On the one hand, food production had stagnated for quite a long period of time and  food supply and demand had become increasingly acute; on the other hand, the African countries were becoming too dependent upon the international market, strengthening  the fluctuating frequency of agriculture production and land resource were severely damaged. What's even worse is the lopsided agricultural structure which was formed in colonial period, with the characteristics of the dominance of plantation and subordination of livestock husbandry, forestry and fishery.

In addition, the poor polices in African countries, such as overvalued exchange rates, price control and taxes imposition on agricultural exports was not beneficial to the development of agriculture in all respects. African governments had long kept down the purchasing price for agricultural products which were imported by state-enterprises to the world market at a higher, causing the domestic prices lower than border prices.

Many governments tried in every way to lower down the purchasing price of food so that they could guarantee provision of the urban citizens with grains in lower prices in exchange for their support to the regime. They lowered down the purchasing prices of cash crops so that industry could provide with cheaper raw material, assuring the low cost in industrial production. Moreover, the policies of import substitution industrialization protected by high tariff forced farmers to purchase fertilizers, pesticides, farm tools, farm machinery and other means of production at higher prices than world market. The above polices seriously damped the enthusiasm of farmers and enormously impeded normal development of agriculture.   

 (2) Period from 1980 to present

From 1980s, neoclassical theory which presupposes the existence of developed market economy was in a dominant position in African countries. Neoclassical theory opposed state intervention in economy and emphasized that African countries and other third world countries should regard market and price as the center in the adjustment and development of economy, especially should regard price mechanism as motive power in the adjustment of economy.  Under this theory, majority of African countries have been engaged in Adjustment Structure Programs sponsored by IMF and World Bank.  In macro-economic field, they   carry out trade liberalization, establish flexible exchange rates and eliminate the price control. In sectional economic field, they give a priority in food and agriculture productions in the distribution of fund, resources as well as the designing of economic plan, including the elimination of marketing boards, the raising of purchasing prices to link it with world market prices, reduction of the subsidy of food and the increase of investment in agriculture. However, due to the harsh reality of underdeveloped commodity economy in African countries, the mechanism of market and price from neoclassicism can not take a full effect.  Many reform measures were hardly pursued. For instance, structural adjustment programs in Africa have closed down many government monopolies that once financed the production and controlled the purchase, processing and export of agricultural commodities, and marketing and rural finance service was shifted from state marketing boards to the private sector. But private traders are reluctant to provide farmers with production and the quality of some crops in most countries. In Tanzania, the reduced supply and use of inputs since liberalization has caused a slump in coffee yields, from around 250 kg/ha to around 200 kg/ha. Similar problems are report in cotton sector, where the input credit system has generally collapsed. 4

2. African physical environment and resources are not favorable to the development of agriculture.

African natural adversities have often been used to explain agriculture's poor performance. Although about 90 per cent of Africa is classified as tropical climates in character, diverse patterns of precipitation, soil, and topography are combined to produce a wide range of environment. For the most part a dry continent, it may be divided into about 12 generalized climatic units ¾ of these, 37 per cent may be  classified as arid; about 13 per cent semi-arid;  and about 23 per cent as subhumid. As a whole, African natural environment for developing agriculture production is congenitally deficient.

First, soil in most part of African continent is barren. Africa's arable areas are separated by vast stretches of country unsuitable for cultivation. Deserts occupy about 40 per cent of the continent, and dense rain forests along the equator where poor soil, diseases and the absence of a sufficient drying-out period discourage the cultivation of cereals, account for 7 to 8 per cent of the land mass. Even within the arable belts, soils are for the most part generally old, lacking in soluble minerals and easily degraded when their vegetation is weakened or removed. Dry areas are dominated by porous sandy soils lacking nutrients, and many of the humid lowlands have acid soils. An additional restraint is the widespread incidence of tsetse fly which infests over two-thirds of the subhumid zone and has held back the economy of entire regions by preventing the development of what might have been successful stock farming areas. Therefore, compared with the other continents in the world,  Africa has not as a large area of  grasslands with rich black soil as  Europe and North America , nor has it  as an extensive plain  with a fertile alluvia soil as Asia and South America. It has only red soil, lateritic soil and desert which totally account   for two thirds of African continent. Because these kinds of soils are less   nutrient and easy to degrade once in cultivation, they are not allowed to be cultivated permanently. Measures as forms of shifting cultivation, crop rotation, and intercropping must be taken in order to effectively adapt to the harsh environmental conditions. Therefore, this is just one of shortcomings of African natural environment in developing agriculture.

Second, there is an uneven dispersal of African water (include river and rainfall).  Most areas are short of water, which is very unfavorable to agriculture production. Although there are many densely covered networks of waterways in the Congo Basin , a large numbers of lakes in the Great Lake' region and  swamps in upper  reaches of the Nile.,  the dry areas including the Sahara  Desert and the Namib Desert are almost without surface runoff .These areas account for 29.6 per cent of African continent. There are some other regions which are characterized by a few scattered network waterways, a few surface runoff, and high evapotranspiration rates. Altogether there is almost 60 per cent of African land threatened by drought.5 Similarly, there is not a well-distributed and erratic rainfall within a year and in most cases it is characterized by thunder shower. Moreover, rainfall is excessively heavy at same time (period) which is harmful to agriculture production. On one hand, water has been washed away before it was absorbed by soil and vegetation, on other hand the soil is easy to erode. But more importantly, the significant rainfall problem for most of Africa lies in its annual distribution rather than its quantity. Even in years of statistically adequate overall rainfall, rains may start late or finish early, and dry spells may arrive at crucial times in the growing season.

Third, Africa's topography is not favorable to the development of the agricultural irrigation. Some famous rivers as the Nile in Africa flow through rolling hills.  If people along the river banks want to use water to irrigate the farm land, they have to pay expensive prices to control water.

3. Technology including planting skills and production facilities are extremely backward, especially in food production.

Up to now, in many African countries, planting is done by broadcasting seeds, weeding by sharpened sticks and storage on farm in receptacle structures, transport of farm products mostly by roads and their marketing by the private sector. In rural areas, means of production is very simple and crude, most farmers depend entirely on primitive hand-hoe, axes, machetes and sickles for cultivating the land, tractors and animal drawn ploughs are limited in use. If the land and labor is relatively abundant supply, there is no felt need at farm level to adopt capital intensive technology. For this reason, the gap is gradually widened by technology between African agriculture and average level of the world. Because African farmers have poor abilities in acceptance, dissemination, utilization, they have not benefited from advanced agriculture technology which has been mastered extensively by the farmers in other regions of the world.

4. Civil Conflict and strife severely inhibited agriculture production and worsened food shortage.

Africa continent is the most unstable region in the world. About one-fifth of Africans live in countries severely disrupted by conflict. Exception for independence wars, nearly 20 African countries have experienced at least one period of civil strife since 1960.  In many countries agricultural performance over the past 30 years has been inhibited by civil war and conflict. War slows or stops food production and marketing. Food supplies are plundered and used as instruments of war, crop cycles are interrupted, seeds and breeding livestock are consumed in desperation, and children suffer permanent damage as a result of insufficient food. For instance, Sudan has huge potential, but its current phase of civil war has lasted 16 years , about 2.5 million people have lost their lives, and the country has the largest number of internally displaced people in the world ¾ hardly and environment conducive to sustained agricultural growth. Conflict also continues in Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Somalia, and has recently occurred in Guinea-Bissau, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

5. Heavy burdens of foreign debt, deteriorative terms of trade for agricultural products and declining foreign aid are international elements leading to agriculture crisis in Africa.

As symptom and part of its long-term underdevelopment, African economies are too small to have a noticeable impact on the world economy. However, due to the reality of the single-product structure, backward technology of production and rigid consume, every international economic shock have brought about disastrous consequences on African economy.

When most African countries started their independence, the advanced countries entered a period with rapid growth. At that time, the world market is in great demand of primary products and it is easy to get loans in low interest rates. It is such an international environment that stimulated African countries in the use of great amounts of foreign exchange as their development project for the goal of rapid economic growth.

After two oil price shocks in 1973-74 and 1979-80, western developed countries suffered heavily and the world-wide recession followed: world prices have slumped, world trade has grown slowly, other countries have become more competitive, and interest rates have risen. All elements have combined to undermine further the basis of African economies. What is worse, aid to agriculture started to decline in 1980, just as  debt in African countries were due for  return,  and   an unprecedented drought and famine occurred in African continent. Therefore, many African countries have resorted to some more heavy external borrowing in order to sustain levels of expenditure and previous booms.  As a result African countries were burdened with huge and growing indebtedness which are now fatal to its current economic crisis. As late as 1997, the total outstanding debt for Africa was $ 315 billion, the external debt average half of GDP, and almost two and half times exports. Approximately one quarter of total export proceeds was devoted to servicing external debt.6 Many African countries are in fact paying more to the North than they receive from the North in loans, investments and grants. Most of them can scarcely even cover debt services from their total exports, and thus have to borrow more and more simply to survive, forcing many countries to curtail not only food imports but the materials required to sustain and expand their agricultural output. Heavy debt led to African economies caught in a trap from which there appears to be no possibility of escape.

Meanwhile, international market conditions have moved against African exports.  Firstly, world market decreased its demand for African primary products whose position was occupied by substitutes and world price slumped. Secondly, the industrialized countries imposed protectionist agricultural policies give a subsidy to agriculture in order to dump their products. Agricultural protectionism, subsidized prices and the dumping of surpluses are widespread and deeply entrenched in industrialized countries. Thus African agricultural products face the threat of import barriers and tariffs abroad and the western farmers subsidized by government dumped the world market with their surplus food. The adverse effects are numerous: the western export of surpluses gave a further constrain on African farmers; over-supply leads the drop of price together with the reduction of avenues. The depressive effect on world market prices discourages African governments from adopting incentives and free market mechanisms for their own agriculture. In 1986 the World Bank made out a strong case against agricultural protectionism, noting that in 1985 alone this had cost the world about $ 64 billion in foregone revenue ¾ more than twice the entire flow concessional aid from the OECD to the developing countries. Despite this evidence, the political will has not yet emerged among Western countries to effectively roll back the protectionist tide. In 1990s, the protectionist is still rampant. In 1996, subsidies to agriculture were estimated at $300 billion, about the same as Africa's GDP.

In addition, Africa's persistent agricultural crisis is also related to massive foreign assistance. As for African countries with insufficient capital, foreign aid is no doubt beneficial to their economic development. However, a wide variety of views and interests lie behind the assistance.   As official aid agencies have come to play increasingly dominant and influential roles in the determination of national polices, so African leaders in turn are increasingly looking beyond their borders for solutions to their problems. The result has been a multiplicity of uncoordinated aid activities which have tended to weaken any overall coherence in agricultural strategies for Africa.

At present, foreign aid flowing into Africa becomes less and less. This is also a great side effect on agriculture production. Capital invested in agriculture sector became less and less. Although there was some investment in it, very serious conditions were imposed by World Bank, IMF, such as the requirements of investment in the building of wheat mills, bakeries, dairy plants and abattoirs. Capital for food production is quite limited.    

Section III

Although there are many elements leading to agricultural crisis in Africa, internal elements, especially unrealistic theories and policies are playing a dominant role in Africa. Therefore, we should work out solutions from inside in order to prevent the worse trend of African agriculture.

First, African countries need urgently to solidify its agricultural foundation in the formulation of economic development strategies. Second, food production should the primary task. People can not live without food. Social stability and economic development can only be based on enough food.  Third, early warning mechanism should be established in order to monitor the changes of main factors which influence African agriculture production and   supply--demand of agricultural products, adopt positive measures for the avoidance of agricultural deterioration, and reduce the loss as little as possible. Fourth, adoption of policies to promote private sector farming and agriculture marketing processing and credit, and  development and distribution of new technology, and inclusion of farmers in decisions affection their livelihood. Fifth, development of infrastructure and social programs in support of agriculture and improve manage of material resources.